Weekly report of Shanghai nickel stainless steel market: the demand is still high, and nickel stainless steel is subject to shock

Weekly review: Shanghai Nickel 2212 contract was blocked in the upward direction, because the US economic data showed that the prospect was still worried, and the rise of the US dollar index slowed down; The downstream demand of nickel market performed well, but the market was afraid of high spirits, and the spot premium fell back.

Market analysis: The slowdown of US personal consumption expenditure and the decline of housing investment have raised the market's concern about the US economic outlook, and the US dollar index has been under pressure; The decline of PMI data in Europe and the United States also weakened risk appetite. Fundamentally, the import of nickel ores in the upstream started to decline month on month, but the import price of nickel ores fell back, and the supply of raw materials was OK. The export of Indonesian nickel products was gradually released, with the export of high nickel matte and MHP accelerated. The downstream stainless steel production has increased, and the new energy market is strong, which supports the demand; However, due to the recent rise of nickel price, the downstream fear of high prices has increased, and the inventory has rebounded. It is expected that the nickel price will fluctuate at a high level.

Looking forward to next week: It is expected that the nickel price will fluctuate strongly, and the inventory will remain low, but the downstream is more afraid of high prices. Technically, NI2212 contract opened weekly with bare head, the market is bullish, but it needs to be cautious, and the mainstream short positions have reduced significantly. In terms of operation, it is recommended to take a long position in case of callback.

Weekly review: the stainless steel 2212 contract rose and fell, the arrival volume of stainless steel market increased, the downstream procurement demand remained stable, and the price decline made the market stop and wait mentality warm up, and the recent inventory rebounded.

Market analysis: upstream ferronickel price is stable, refined nickel price is strong, and the cost side is supported; The production profit of domestic stainless steel plants has improved, the output has increased, and the return of Indonesian resources has increased, and the supply side has been gradually released. Recently, the arrival of market resources has increased, while the downstream mainly purchases on demand, making the inventory rise slightly. The domestic terminal machinery industry saw an increase in orders, but the export demand declined significantly. The market was worried about the demand prospect, and it was expected that the price of stainless steel would be adjusted at a high level.

Looking ahead to next week: It is expected that prices will fluctuate widely, market sentiment will improve, but inventory will recover slightly. Technically, the negative line of SS2212 contract weekly shadow is facing resistance, and the position is sharply reduced and trading is cautious. In terms of operation, it is recommended to throw high and suck low in light warehouse.