Nickel&Stainless Steel Monthly Report: The demand continues to fall short of expectations, and the decline of stainless steel appears

On the macro level, the market continued to play the game of interest rate increase in December, and energy, geopolitical conflicts and other issues frequently disturbed the macro sentiment. It is expected that nickel price will not have a trend under the situation of long and short, or continue to be dominated by shocks.

In terms of industry, the price of nickel ore keeps rising in the rainy season, pushing up the cost center of nickel industry; Due to the high ore price, the profits of ferronickel plants continue to be under pressure, and the procurement of small and medium-sized steel plants has turned to wait-and-see. The subsequent trend of iron price depends on the procurement of stainless steel; After the inventory reached the historical low point, electrolytic nickel began to appear out of stock, but the transaction was mainly based on rigid demand, and the price was expected to fluctuate; The cost support of stainless steel is relatively strong, but the spot transaction remains light. If the future demand is difficult to improve significantly, the price of stainless steel may gradually fall back.

In general, the macro sentiment is changeable, and all links of the industrial chain are also mixed. It may be difficult to see the nickel price go out of the trend market in the short term, and it is expected to operate in shock; Although stainless steel has cost support, the demand continues to be light or drives the price of stainless steel to fall gradually. NI2212 reference interval is 170000-190000 yuan/ton, and SS2212 reference interval is 15500-17500 yuan/ton.

Operation strategy: In terms of operation, Shanghai Nickel interval operation, short stainless steel light warehouse.

Uncertainty risk: geopolitics, epidemic spread, inflation in the United States returning to a high level, domestic economic stabilization policies were less than expected, and Indonesian export tax rates exceeded market expectations.